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發表於 2006-6-10 04:56 AM
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[討論] 全球暖化論...偽科學背後的陰謀!
The article challenge our common knowledge and universal value, showing a shocking so-called ‘truth’. I am not suspicious and curious. I hate to join in endless controversy to unveil hideous‘plots’from everything I heard. However, this issue closely involves the future destiny of human and even the earth, so I am very interesting in the discussion.
Both our feeling and most scientist researches find out the temperature is rising in recent decades, no matter where. Of cause, we can doubt the limitation of what we feel and we see. However, on the whole, the article does not give convinced evidence to refute the global warming theory, just points out the doubtful arguments. The demonstration is not really rigorous.
I divide the arguments into several parts:
One: Is the information believable?
You said that the statistics are inaccurate. Yes, it may be over the reality, but it can be under as well. And, it is measurement, but not estimates. You mean mercury cannot measure the temperature accurately?? Besides, the measurement stations are mainly in the North is not a problem, because most part of lands is on there. Is it possible that the North goes warm and the South goes cold? Don’t forget that monsoon and ocean current can moderate the change of temperature. Moreover, not only cities go warm, but also uncrowded places. Have you heard that the ice of Alps and Himalayas is melting? Lastly, even local cooling, which is not conflicting to global warming. For example, England will go cold when the warm ocean current from Mexico Gulf is obstructed by the melting ice of Greenland.
Two: Is industrialization relevant to global warming?
Devil advocates can argue that it is just a coincidence. Yes, no one has ‘proved’ the relationship between them. But the speed of going warm is too fast, i.e. 100years 0.7degree. It is not similar to the long-term self-adjustment system of the earth, i.e. millions years several degrees.
Three: Does Greenhouse effect cause global warming?
Let see the total effect: More evaporation will cause more cloud, which can obstruct and reflex sunlight (about 20%), but on the other side, keep the remaindered heat energy from sunlight (over 70%). If the atmosphere contains too much Carbon dioxide, it is probably very hot, like the example near us, the Venus.
Four: Is the ice cup of the Antarctic becoming thick?
The answer is right. Nevertheless, I use your term: weather is not equal to climate. The phenomenon occurs recently, but not many years.
Five: Does the West benefit (others harm) from such a pseudoscience theory really?
There are several doubtful points:
A. The Kyoto Protocol tackling climate change restricts developed countries much more severely than developing countries.
B. The viewpoint about the Protocol between Europe and the U.S. is very different.
C. Developing countries (most world population) can unite together to unmask the ‘hypocrisy’of the West, but they never do it.
D. Keep burning coal and oil will cause serious pollution as well as social costs for developing countries.
E. As the West uses green technology to control the developing countries, the later will learn from the hi-tech products.
We, as ordinary people, without much professional scientific knowledge, how can we distinguish real science from pseudoscience exactly? Even you are a specialist, you may not have enough time and patience to find out the truth. Just believing the most popular viewpoint of specialists, instead of always asking why, is the most economical way to enrich knowledge. Of cause, a person with basic education level should have common sense and critical thinking ability.
As an environmentalist as well as a responsible world citizen, I still insist that saving energy and restricting exhaust emission are the necessary ways, especially for wealthy countries, to avoid excessively harming nature and human society.
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